Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season
Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts... Future start Coming in slightly more than one month :D.--Isaac829 19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC) Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC) : Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC) ::: I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::: That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! AndrewTalk To Me 00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC) Betting pools Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC) July 03L.CHANTAL 95L.INVEST This will probably become Chantal in the next few days.Allanjeffs 11:58, July 6, 2013 (UTC) Currently, this invest is at 30%. AndrewTalk To Me 18:45, July 6, 2013 (UTC) : This one is the one that's worth watching. Chantal-to be is forecast to head west-northwest into the Caribbean and slowly but surely strengthen along the way. This is very ominous for this time of year. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 01:02, July 7, 2013 (UTC) : Well, it seems as if the GFS seems to like the wave behind 95L more. I still think this wave is one of the most big ones we have seen so far this year. Definitely could get a tropical depression or storm out of this if it slows down and closes off a circulation. Simlover123' ' 02:41, July 7, 2013 (UTC) : Should be Chantal or td 3 tomorrow if organization persist.Allanjeffs 09:40, July 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: Now 40%. Still forecast to move through the Caribbean and gradually strengthen, but according to some of the reliable models, there will be some shear in the Eastern Caribbean at the time it arrives, so it might not be much until it hits the Central/Western Caribbean. It's early in the season to see powerful, Cape-Verde storms, but according to some seasons (1996, 2005, 2008), it's not impossible in early July. Ryan1000 13:43, July 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: If 95L develops into Chantal the Gfs is showing another system potentially Dorian affecting Florida as a strong system.Allanjeffs 17:21, July 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: 60% the EPAC already has it fun its time for the atlantic to make a comeback.:PAllanjeffs 17:24, July 7, 2013 (UTC) ::: It will go straight to ts as winds are now 35knots. AL, 95, 2013070718, , BEST, 0, 98N, 438W, 35, 1008, WV, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1013, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Allanjeffs 18:29, July 7, 2013 (UTC) : CMON CHANTAL BRO she is currently at a 60% chance of forming right off the coast of Western Africa. This is fresh from the NHC: A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 25 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Judging from that shape, Chantal would probably become no more than a weakish Category 1 hurricane, and I am somewhat expecting a re-Rafael of 2012, but the only difference is that it is... in summer and not autumn, and it happens almost one year later, and this is a girl hurricane not a boy hurricane. Chantal is probably going to have an expected formation date of about July 10. Sooner or later, Dozza Gray might be here next week if conditions are like this! Guys, what do you think? (P.S. Andy Murray won Wimbledon. He made history! :D) Rara Hooves 19:40, July 7, 2013 (UTC) If NHC named Ana and not this, I'll be very surprised. As far as organization goes, this has much more defined structural features compared to Ana at peak intensity. Also, if it forms this far south, there isn't enough rotational velocity supported by the Coriolis force. It will have to get pulled by the westerlies before strengthening significantly. This could pull of an Arthur 90'. - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 22:04, July 7, 2013 (UTC) :From what I gather this is an unusually strong tropical wave for this time of year and in this location (there is also another potent wave coming off the coast of Africa). The ATCF files are already saying that this has tropical storm winds, so this would most likely skip TD status once classified. All the models I've looked at so far have this striking at least parts of the Greater Antilles and the US, though the BAMD and the AEMI are quite ambiguous with their track forecasts. It looks like the upper-end intensity is a strong Category 1 in five days, though most of the models have this peaking as a moderate tropical storm in three or so days, by which time the storm should be at about 65W. The TAFB model has this making landfall on the DR by 1200 UTC on Wednesday. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 22:11, July 7, 2013 (UTC) :95L will enter the Caribbean there is no doubt of that but the place it goes will depend its strength many are showing a landfall in Haiti and DR.Allanjeffs 22:43, July 7, 2013 (UTC) The NHC has bumped this invest up to 70%. Currently, all the computer models predict 95L will affect the Leeward Islands. I believe this invest will follow a path similar to Hurricane Dennis of 2005, and its maximum intensity will be similar to 2005's Hurricane Cindy. I doubt this system will become a major hurricane, although I think conditions will be ideal for a minimal hurricane. Also, CS, gale-force winds have been reported in the center, meaning if 95L becomes tropical, it will go straight to tropical storm intensity. And Liz, Rafael was steered very early in its development northwards because of a trough. There will likely be no trough to force 95L northward, and none of the computer models currently forecasting the invest predict such an early northward turn in the invest's projected path. AndrewTalk To Me 01:37, July 8, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Three Contrary to the ASCAT passes we now have a renumbered tropical depression per ATCF. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 02:16, July 8, 2013 (UTC) I know they went with td they should have gone with ts.Allanjeffs 02:20, July 8, 2013 (UTC) AL, 03, 2013070800, , BEST, 0, 97N, 461W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1013, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHANTAL, M she is here. the third of the season.Allanjeffs 02:32, July 8, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Chantal The third of the season.Allanjeffs 02:37, July 8, 2013 (UTC) :With AJ's posting, it would appear that the NHC has corrected (I use that term really loosely) the ATCF entry, and it has now been classified as a tropical storm. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 02:41, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::I'm not seeing anything on the NHC website, maybe we should wait on this? --HurricaneMaker99 02:55, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::One minute later...advisory comes out. Spoke too soon, HM.Isaac829 02:57, July 8, 2013 (UTC) :::::Yeah, I was about to say that info was starting to show up. TS Warning up for St. Lucia, Dominica, and Barbados, TS Watch in effect for St. Vincent. Hello Chantal! --HurricaneMaker99 02:59, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Speedy little bugger too! Rocketing off to the west at 26 mph. --HurricaneMaker99 03:03, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::mhm that means that even with that foward speed tc can develop.The NHC just portray the track I was thinking.btw the ATCF are correct 99% of the time specially with systems close to land.Allanjeffs 03:12, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Well, that was fast! I did not expect Chantal to come by this soon. Anyway, the system is forecast to interact with the Greater Antilles landmasses in a few days. Also, because of Chantal's fast movement, I do not expect a very intense system yet, probably only as intense as 2011's Tropical Storm Emily. Regardless, the Leewards will take a direct hit from this storm. Chantal's current intensity is 35-kts/1007 mbar. AndrewTalk To Me 10:35, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::I doubt I believe right now is a 45 or 50 mph storm she has a chance of reaching hurricane intensity before hitting DR.Btw in a week we will probably see Dorian and it looks like conditions will be more favorable for him.Allanjeffs 11:17, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Since the last advisory, Chantal has intensified slightly. Also, tropical storm watches are in effect for Puerto Rico as well. Impactwise, Chantal should bring gusty winds, precipitation measurements of 2 to 4 inches, and a 1 to 3 foot storm surge to the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecasted to attain 60-kt winds once in the Caribbean Sea. Although hurricane status is possible, I think land interaction with the Greater Antilles will hinder any guarantee of hurricane intensity for Chantal. After the Greaters, Chantal is predicted to weaken over the Bahamas. If, by chance, the system does reach the United States, I believe it will be nothing more than a tropical depression. Overall, Chantal should remain a weak system and not cause any major impact, unless it pulls a Tomas. AndrewTalk To Me 17:20, July 8, 2013 (UTC) As nightfall begins on Chantal looks like it is organizing back a little bit after a drawback in convection earlier today. It is moving into more northerly latitudes, so the tradewinds are starting to spread the storm out. We'll see how it survives in the tradewinds as it approaches the Lessers. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 17:54, July 8, 2013 (UTC) : Maybe Chantal won't end up as threatening as I first thought it would be, if it runs itself over Hispaniola, this won't be any worse than Emily of 2011. It'll have to slow down if it wants to become something in the Caribbean, not that that's typical for storms in early-mid July anyways. Not forecast to get stronger than a TS, due to her rapid movement. Ryan1000 18:17, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::: Oh, and one more thing -- If you see Dr. Jeff Master's latest blog post, he mentioned a quote from Dr. Gray of CSU saying that seven of the most active seasons since record-keeping in 1950 had early-season activity in the Central Atlantic from tropical waves off of Africa. Those seasons were 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All of those seasons turned out to be very active and destructive seasons overall, and he mentioned that the formation of Chantal in the Central Atlantic on July 8 -- over a month earlier than the typical August 13 for the season's third named storm -- means that conditions in the central, Main Development Region of the Atlantic are already very favorable for tropical cyclone development. There could be a lot of powerful, long-lasting, and potentially life-threatening, Cape Verde-type hurricanes in the Central Atlantic this year for that very reason. We're in for a helluva ride, and Chantal is merely the beginning of what's to come. Ryan1000 18:35, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::: Sup dudes. Fresh from the Weather Channel: ::: "Tropical Storm Chantal formed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean late Sunday night (Eastern U.S. time) and is racing west toward the Lesser Antilles. The system developed as a strong tropical wave with tropical storm force winds before finally developing a closed circulation late Sunday night, thus bypassing the tropical depression phase and becoming Tropical Storm Chantal straightaway. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Barbados, Dominica, Saint Lucia, Martinique and Guadeloupe. A tropical storm watch has now been issued for Puerto Rico, and continues in effect for Saint Vincent. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Windward Islands by early Tuesday and may affect parts of Puerto Rico late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. After crossing the Lesser Antilles, Chantal is expected to affect portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba (see the latest projected path map below). Residents in the mainland U.S. will have to pay attention to this system. The current forecast takes the center of Chantal over the Bahamas Friday into early Saturday, but given the margin of error in the forecast, parts of Florida could be affected as well at the end of the workweek." Oh dear. I also have a map of an update of this terrifying storm: In my opinion, I see this Chantal becoming a Category 1 at the max. Remember, it's only July, and the worst storms usually occur from August - October. (The storms that are most likely to be the worst are from Humberto - Sebastian.) Rara Hooves 19:37, July 8, 2013 (UTC) : I honestly don't expect Chantal to become more than a C1 either, unless it misses Hispaniola to the south. If it does, then we could have a potentially dangerous hurricane approaching the GOM by Friday/Saturday. And behind Chantal we have another African wave which could become Dorian in 3-4 days as well. Ryan1000 22:59, July 8, 2013 (UTC) ::Chantal is the shit! A moderate tropical storm with 45kt winds yet recon only hint extrapolated surface pressure of 1010mb. Flight level winds aren't exactly accurate either but heck, 1010mb! - HurricaneSpin (Talk) 01:02, July 9, 2013 (UTC) ::Chantal is strengthening even with all factors against it.She might even reach hurricane status before hitting Hispañola btw my friend prepare for Dorian is leaving Africa right now most models show this becoming a formidable hurricane probably a major.Allanjeffs 01:31, July 9, 2013 (UTC) ::Currently, Chantal is leveling off in terms of intensity. However, radar data from Barbados indicates poor development to its north. Also, tropical storm watches are now in effect for the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. And I am still not rooting Chantal will become a hurricane. The storm is not moving slow enough to allow significant development, but hurricane status is not out of the question. AndrewTalk To Me 12:46, July 9, 2013 (UTC) It may have been steadily strengthening but it's definitely become quite disorganized in the past few hours. Save a large convective burst, convection had been stalling and had been quite warm. As such the center of Chantal has raced westward ahead of the center and is near landfall or going to slip past Martinique, roughly 50-100 miles ahead of the supposed CDO. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:42, July 9, 2013 (UTC) Actually even though she looks horrible she is strengthening she might become a cat 1 before a landfall in Hispañola.Allanjeffs 13:52, July 9, 2013 (UTC) :Eh.... I'm not too sure about that. Recon recorded estimated SFMR surface winds of 68 kt (Category 1 hurricane) but these occurred right off land in Martinique and there are numerous flagged observations there. Also there's a station in Le Lamentein which will give a really good indication on the strength of Chantal. Currently it's giving 35 mph winds and 1011 pressure, which is what we were expecting. Also the eyewall, or at least the storms surrounding the CoC are ready to slam into the station. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 13:58, July 9, 2013 (UTC) :Upto 60 and a hurricane watch issue to DR.Allanjeffs 15:07, July 9, 2013 (UTC) AOI: Bahamas Upper-level low feature over the Bahamas given a 0% by the National Hurricane Center, and is expected to move westward through southern Florida/Florida Straits. Since there's the strong winds in the lower levels I think this system won't develop, and will stay a mid-to upper-level feature. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 17:56, July 8, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, this is just a random area of thunderstorms that won't do more than bring some rain to parts of Florida. I'd be stunned if this becomes Dorian. Ryan1000 18:18, July 8, 2013 (UTC)